Thursday, September 12, 2013
Today: Will NBC find success or is the next Do No Harm on the way? We take a look at each new drama and the chances of it becoming a success.
Here is the scale that will be used (numbers are percentage of becoming a success):
Very Likely (100-80) - An outstanding performer
Likely (79-60) - A strong performer
Okay (59-40) - A middle-of-the-road performer
Poor (39-20) - A weak performer
Very Poor (19-0) - One of the first cancellations of the season
Timeslot: Mondays at 10/9c
Lead in: The Voice
Competition: Castle and Hostages
Analysis: Perhaps the most anticipated new drama of the season, The Blacklist has high expectations in the post-Voice timeslot. Revolution premiered to a whopping 4.1 A18-49 last season, holding onto 86% of the audience from The Voice. I do not expect The Blacklist to premiere that high, since I also do not expect The Voice to premiere at a 4.7 A18-49 again. The timeslot is key here. Hold enough audience from The Voice and its a success, hold onto just half (even at a 2.0) and risk cancellation. The series is being promoted heavily and James Spader is a pretty familiar face. The debut is going to be strong (I am thinking a 3.0) and fall in the coming weeks. The difference between The Blacklist and Revolution is the competition they faced when they premiered. Revolution premiered against all repeat competition, while The Blacklist will face the debut of Hostages and season premiere of Castle on the night of its premiere. Either way, this will likely be the biggest new drama of the season.
Chance of Success: Very likely
Timeslot: Fridays at 10/9c
Lead in: Grimm
Competition: 20/20 and Blue Bloods
Analysis: It took two seasons, but I think NBC has finally found a companion to Grimm. Dracula has the familiar character and with a new spin here, I think it could really do well. As I said, Grimm is the perfect show for Dracula. The audiences will likely skew similar, providing NBC the perfect one two punch they need to take hold of the night. Competition in the ten o'clock hour is extremely light: a news-magazine (20/20) and an old-skewing cop drama (Blue Bloods). All Dracula needs to do is win the hour, which it could do with a 1.3 A18-49, and a renewal should come easily. Finally, the debut close to Halloween, on October 25th, should work as an advantage to the premiere of Dracula. People will be ready for the holiday, and may have increased interest in the show. Regardless of how it premieres, I think a 1.3-1.5 is likely for a season average and it will be back for a second season.
Chance of Success: Likely
Timeslot: Wednesdays at 10/9c
Lead in: Law and Order: SVU
Competition: CSI and Nashville
Analysis: With a major portion of advertising used to promote The Blacklist and The Michael J. Fox Show, Ironside has been pushed to the back-burner. The series is familiar for some viewers, as it is a remake of the original 60's series. For others, its another police procedural, which always seem to find an audience. The hour is not as competitive as it used to be, so there is a chance Ironside is able to carve out its own audience. Law and Order: SVU is way past its prime, but it is still able to provide as a stable lead in for new series, as seen last fall with Chicago Fire. If you recall, Chicago Fire was expected to be one of the first cancellations last season - and now it will air in the prime post-Voice timeslot. Unfortunately for Ironside, I do not see NBC finding two hits in the same timeslot in back to back years. The show hasn't had enough of a grab, and with few promotions, I doubt most audiences will even know it is there. Ironside may just be one of the first drama cancellations.
Chance of Success: Poor
Very Poor (19-0) - One of the first cancellations of the season
Lead in: The Voice
Competition: Castle and Hostages
Analysis: Perhaps the most anticipated new drama of the season, The Blacklist has high expectations in the post-Voice timeslot. Revolution premiered to a whopping 4.1 A18-49 last season, holding onto 86% of the audience from The Voice. I do not expect The Blacklist to premiere that high, since I also do not expect The Voice to premiere at a 4.7 A18-49 again. The timeslot is key here. Hold enough audience from The Voice and its a success, hold onto just half (even at a 2.0) and risk cancellation. The series is being promoted heavily and James Spader is a pretty familiar face. The debut is going to be strong (I am thinking a 3.0) and fall in the coming weeks. The difference between The Blacklist and Revolution is the competition they faced when they premiered. Revolution premiered against all repeat competition, while The Blacklist will face the debut of Hostages and season premiere of Castle on the night of its premiere. Either way, this will likely be the biggest new drama of the season.
Chance of Success: Very likely
Lead in: Grimm
Competition: 20/20 and Blue Bloods
Analysis: It took two seasons, but I think NBC has finally found a companion to Grimm. Dracula has the familiar character and with a new spin here, I think it could really do well. As I said, Grimm is the perfect show for Dracula. The audiences will likely skew similar, providing NBC the perfect one two punch they need to take hold of the night. Competition in the ten o'clock hour is extremely light: a news-magazine (20/20) and an old-skewing cop drama (Blue Bloods). All Dracula needs to do is win the hour, which it could do with a 1.3 A18-49, and a renewal should come easily. Finally, the debut close to Halloween, on October 25th, should work as an advantage to the premiere of Dracula. People will be ready for the holiday, and may have increased interest in the show. Regardless of how it premieres, I think a 1.3-1.5 is likely for a season average and it will be back for a second season.
Chance of Success: Likely
Lead in: Law and Order: SVU
Competition: CSI and Nashville
Analysis: With a major portion of advertising used to promote The Blacklist and The Michael J. Fox Show, Ironside has been pushed to the back-burner. The series is familiar for some viewers, as it is a remake of the original 60's series. For others, its another police procedural, which always seem to find an audience. The hour is not as competitive as it used to be, so there is a chance Ironside is able to carve out its own audience. Law and Order: SVU is way past its prime, but it is still able to provide as a stable lead in for new series, as seen last fall with Chicago Fire. If you recall, Chicago Fire was expected to be one of the first cancellations last season - and now it will air in the prime post-Voice timeslot. Unfortunately for Ironside, I do not see NBC finding two hits in the same timeslot in back to back years. The show hasn't had enough of a grab, and with few promotions, I doubt most audiences will even know it is there. Ironside may just be one of the first drama cancellations.
Chance of Success: Poor
