Tuesday, September 10, 2013
Today: Will The CW find success or is the next Cult on the way? We take a look at each new drama and the chances of it becoming a success.
Here is the scale that will be used (numbers are percentage of becoming a success):
Very Likely (100-80) - An outstanding performer
Likely (79-60) - A strong performer
Okay (59-40) - A middle-of-the-road performer
Poor (39-20) - A weak performer
Very Poor (19-0) - One of the first cancellations of the season
Timeslot: Tuesdays at 8/7c
Lead in: Local programming
Competition: Agents of S.H.I.E.L.D., The Biggest Loser, Brooklyn Nine Nine, Dads, and NCIS
Analysis: A spin-off of the CW's number one series, The Vampire Diaries, sounds like a sure thing. The Originals is taking some familiar faces from the original series and planting them in the spinoff. The competition should not be much of a problem for The Originals, given a lot of it is going to skew male. The CW is giving the show a sneak-peak behind The Vampire Diaries, giving the premiere a strong start. Even if the series only brings over half of the audience from The Vampire Diaries, it will likely score the show a renewal.
Chance of Success: Very likely
Timeslot: Thursdays at 9/8c
Lead in: The Vampire Diaries
Competition: The Crazy Ones, Glee, Grey's Anatomy, The Michael J. Fox Show, Sean Saves the World, and Two and a Half Men
Analysis: Each season the CW introduces a new series that just does not fit the mold of the network programming goal. This season, the show to get the title is Reign (Cult would be last seasons). I personally do not see many people, let alone younger audiences, flocking to a series set way back when. Younger audience, specifically the adults between 18 and 34, want a series set in the present. The lead in of The Vampire Diaries sounds great until the data shows not a single post-Diaries series has been a hit for the network. Of all the shows that have been given the prime timeslot on the network, I would pick Reign to produce the worst overall numbers.
Chance of Success: Poor
Timeslot: Wednesdays at 9/8c
Lead in: Arrow
Competition: Criminal Minds, Law and Order: Special Victims Unit, Modern Family, Super Fun Night, and The X Factor
Analysis: As with Reign, the concept of The Tomorrow People is a bit out there. Unlike Reign, however, The Tomorrow People will fit like a glove out of its Arrow lead in. I had originally placed The Tomorrow People in the post-Arrow timeslot in numerous 'fantasy schedules', so even though I do not plan on watching either series, I am excited for the placement. I do not believe The Tomorrow People will out-rate last seasons timeslot occupant, Supernatural, but somewhere between 0.5-0.6 seems acceptable. An 0.5 or 0.6 would give it retention of around 70%, which has been good enough for shows in the post-Vampire Diaries timeslot. Consider this a solid renewal for next season.
Chance of Success: Likely
Very Poor (19-0) - One of the first cancellations of the season
Lead in: Local programming
Competition: Agents of S.H.I.E.L.D., The Biggest Loser, Brooklyn Nine Nine, Dads, and NCIS
Analysis: A spin-off of the CW's number one series, The Vampire Diaries, sounds like a sure thing. The Originals is taking some familiar faces from the original series and planting them in the spinoff. The competition should not be much of a problem for The Originals, given a lot of it is going to skew male. The CW is giving the show a sneak-peak behind The Vampire Diaries, giving the premiere a strong start. Even if the series only brings over half of the audience from The Vampire Diaries, it will likely score the show a renewal.
Chance of Success: Very likely
Lead in: The Vampire Diaries
Competition: The Crazy Ones, Glee, Grey's Anatomy, The Michael J. Fox Show, Sean Saves the World, and Two and a Half Men
Analysis: Each season the CW introduces a new series that just does not fit the mold of the network programming goal. This season, the show to get the title is Reign (Cult would be last seasons). I personally do not see many people, let alone younger audiences, flocking to a series set way back when. Younger audience, specifically the adults between 18 and 34, want a series set in the present. The lead in of The Vampire Diaries sounds great until the data shows not a single post-Diaries series has been a hit for the network. Of all the shows that have been given the prime timeslot on the network, I would pick Reign to produce the worst overall numbers.
Chance of Success: Poor
Lead in: Arrow
Competition: Criminal Minds, Law and Order: Special Victims Unit, Modern Family, Super Fun Night, and The X Factor
Analysis: As with Reign, the concept of The Tomorrow People is a bit out there. Unlike Reign, however, The Tomorrow People will fit like a glove out of its Arrow lead in. I had originally placed The Tomorrow People in the post-Arrow timeslot in numerous 'fantasy schedules', so even though I do not plan on watching either series, I am excited for the placement. I do not believe The Tomorrow People will out-rate last seasons timeslot occupant, Supernatural, but somewhere between 0.5-0.6 seems acceptable. An 0.5 or 0.6 would give it retention of around 70%, which has been good enough for shows in the post-Vampire Diaries timeslot. Consider this a solid renewal for next season.
Chance of Success: Likely
