Thursday, September 5, 2013
Today: Will NBC find success or is the next Animal Practice on the way? We take a look at each new comedy and the chances of it becoming a success.
Here is the scale that will be used (numbers are percentage of becoming a success):
Very Likely (100-80) - An outstanding performer
Likely (79-60) - A strong performer
Okay (59-40) - A middle-of-the-road performer
Poor (39-20) - A weak performer
Very Poor (19-0) - One of the first cancellations of the season
Very Poor (19-0) - One of the first cancellations of the season
Lead in: Sean Saves the World
Competition: Glee, Grey's Anatomy, Reign, Two and a Half Men
Analysis: One of this falls most anticipated comedies belongs to NBC's The Michael J. Fox Show. The reviews have been fairly positive thus far, although the competition is going to be tough. Two and a Half Men is clearly not the show it used to be, but it is still a threat. Working in favor of The Michael J. Fox Show is the fact the comedies are two different formats: one is multi-camera, the other single-camera. The show, like The Crazy Ones, will be amply sampled in the first few weeks. NBC is debuting two episodes back-to-back on premiere night, so it will at least give viewers a peak beyond the first episode. Will The Michael J. Fox Show save NBC? No, but it will be a step in the right direction.
Chance of Success: Very likely
Lead in: Welcome to the Family
Competition: The Crazy Ones, Glee, Grey's Anatomy, Reign
Analysis: NBC is giving the multi-camera comedy genre another go-around this season with Sean Saves the World. NBC has not had much luck with the format, as seen with Guys with Kids and Whitney. There really is nothing new to see here, although viewers tend to enjoy shows that are familiar to them. As it stands, Sean Saves the World is simply a family comedy, tweaking it to make the parent a single gay father. It will have a tough time with the competition and an untested lead in, but I expect Sean Saves the World to do well enough.
Chance of Success: Okay
Lead in: Parks and Recreation
Competition: The Millers, Once Upon a Time in Wonderland, The Vampire Diaries, The X Factor
Analysis: Among all the new comedies this season, I personally have been most excited for Welcome to the Family. Unfortunately, I do not see things working all too well for the comedy. It will be interesting to see a Caucasian / Latino mixed-family comedy and if it will be able to grab a sizable audience among both demographics. However, its lead in, Parks and Recreation, will likely see huge declines this season against The Big Bang Theory, essentially forcing Welcome to the Family to self-start. I am hoping I am wrong with this guess, but Welcome to the Family could very well be one of the first cancellations this season.
Chance of Success: Very poor
