Monday, September 2, 2013
Today: Will ABC find success or is the next How to Live with Your Parents on the way? We take a look at each new comedy and the chances of it becoming a success.
Here is the scale that will be used (numbers are percentage of becoming a success):
Very Likely (100-80) - An outstanding performer
Likely (79-60) - A strong performer
Okay (59-40) - A middle-of-the-road performer
Poor (39-20) - A weak performer
Very Poor (19-0) - One of the first cancellations of the season
Timeslot: Wednesdays at 830/730c
Lead in: The Middle
Competition: Arrow, Revolution, Survivor, The X Factor
Analysis: The competition for Back in the Game is probably the easiest for any new comedy this fall. Revolution is going to face possible major declines (similar to Smash), declining Survivor and The X Factor become less and less of a worry each season, and Arrow may be the CW's number one series, but the audiences are completely different. The Middle is a very solid performer (2.3-2.6 A18-49) and should give Back in the Game enough of a lead in. I do not see Back in the Game becoming a hit, but a middling performer seems very possible. I could also see Back in the Game as ABC's number one new fall comedy.
Chances of Success: Okay
Timeslot: Tuesdays at 9/8c
Lead in: Agents of S.H.I.E.L.D.
Competition: NCIS: LA, New Girl, Supernatural, The Voice
Analysis: If any comedy is the hardest to gauge, I believe it is The Goldbergs. With a new series lead in, one would have to guess how Agents of SHIELD will perform to figure out how The Goldbergs is going to perform. I do not see 'Agents' becoming the hit some are expecting, which makes the chances of The Goldbergs hitting that much smaller. ABC is putting a lot of advertising muscle into the family comedy, so I do expect it to premiere solidly (as most ABC series tend to do). As the weeks progress, however, the show will likely fall in the same capacity of its lead in.
Chance of Success: Okay
Timeslot: Wednesdays at 930/830c
Lead in: Modern Family
Competition: Criminal Minds, Law and Order: SVU, The Tomorrow People, The X Factor
Analysis: Super Fun Night has been trashed by most critics, despite star Rebel Wilson's likability. It has the post-Modern Family timeslot, but that has pretty much been a death-sentence for most new comedies. Mr. Sunshine, Happy Endings, Don't Trust the B---- in Apartment 23, How to Live with Your Parents all held less than 60% of the large lead in, which eventually lead to their cancellations. One of the most recent occupants, Suburgatory, failed to make a dent in the timeslot as well. Super Fun Night lacks any connection to its lead in, which leads me to believe it will not have much of a chance, no matter how much people love Rebel Wilson.
Chance of Success: Poor
Timeslot: Tuesdays at 930/830c
Lead in: The Goldbergs
Competition: The Mindy Project, NCIS: LA, Supernatural, The Voice
Analysis: Similar to The Goldbergs, Trophy Wife is certainly hard to gauge. Tuesday nights are all new for the network and I believe the success for the entire night relies on Agents of SHIELD. Advertising for Trophy Wife has been soft, as the network seems to be focused on 'Agent' and The Goldbergs. One factor that works in favor of Trophy Wife is the weak comedy competition from The Mindy Project. The Voice and NCIS: LA are not weak competition, however, it is possible Trophy Wife could find its own audience here, but I am not expecting it to happen.
Chance of Success: Very poor
Lead in: The Middle
Competition: Arrow, Revolution, Survivor, The X Factor
Analysis: The competition for Back in the Game is probably the easiest for any new comedy this fall. Revolution is going to face possible major declines (similar to Smash), declining Survivor and The X Factor become less and less of a worry each season, and Arrow may be the CW's number one series, but the audiences are completely different. The Middle is a very solid performer (2.3-2.6 A18-49) and should give Back in the Game enough of a lead in. I do not see Back in the Game becoming a hit, but a middling performer seems very possible. I could also see Back in the Game as ABC's number one new fall comedy.
Chances of Success: Okay
Lead in: Agents of S.H.I.E.L.D.
Competition: NCIS: LA, New Girl, Supernatural, The Voice
Analysis: If any comedy is the hardest to gauge, I believe it is The Goldbergs. With a new series lead in, one would have to guess how Agents of SHIELD will perform to figure out how The Goldbergs is going to perform. I do not see 'Agents' becoming the hit some are expecting, which makes the chances of The Goldbergs hitting that much smaller. ABC is putting a lot of advertising muscle into the family comedy, so I do expect it to premiere solidly (as most ABC series tend to do). As the weeks progress, however, the show will likely fall in the same capacity of its lead in.
Chance of Success: Okay
Lead in: Modern Family
Competition: Criminal Minds, Law and Order: SVU, The Tomorrow People, The X Factor
Analysis: Super Fun Night has been trashed by most critics, despite star Rebel Wilson's likability. It has the post-Modern Family timeslot, but that has pretty much been a death-sentence for most new comedies. Mr. Sunshine, Happy Endings, Don't Trust the B---- in Apartment 23, How to Live with Your Parents all held less than 60% of the large lead in, which eventually lead to their cancellations. One of the most recent occupants, Suburgatory, failed to make a dent in the timeslot as well. Super Fun Night lacks any connection to its lead in, which leads me to believe it will not have much of a chance, no matter how much people love Rebel Wilson.
Chance of Success: Poor
Lead in: The Goldbergs
Competition: The Mindy Project, NCIS: LA, Supernatural, The Voice
Analysis: Similar to The Goldbergs, Trophy Wife is certainly hard to gauge. Tuesday nights are all new for the network and I believe the success for the entire night relies on Agents of SHIELD. Advertising for Trophy Wife has been soft, as the network seems to be focused on 'Agent' and The Goldbergs. One factor that works in favor of Trophy Wife is the weak comedy competition from The Mindy Project. The Voice and NCIS: LA are not weak competition, however, it is possible Trophy Wife could find its own audience here, but I am not expecting it to happen.
Chance of Success: Very poor
