Tuesday, September 3, 2013
Today: Will CBS find success or is the next Partners on the way? We take a look at each new comedy and the chances of it becoming a success.
Here is the scale that will be used (numbers are percentage of becoming a success):
Very Likely (100-80) - An outstanding performer
Likely (79-60) - A strong performer
Okay (59-40) - A middle-of-the-road performer
Poor (39-20) - A weak performer
Very Poor (19-0) - One of the first cancellations of the season
Lead in: The Millers
Competition: Glee, Grey's Anatomy, Reign, Sean Saves the World
Analysis: The Crazy Ones is another venture into the single-camera comedy space for CBS. The network has not aired a single-cam since one-season Worst Week in 2008. This time around, CBS is giving the Robin Williams and Sarah Michelle Gellar starring series a big assignment: help launch a two hour comedy block on Thursday nights. The show should get some strong initial sampling (thanks to the one hour premiere of The Big Bang Theory) but whether or not the audience sticks around remains to be seen. I believe Robin Williams has a built-in audience, one that will skew a bit older. Unlike Worst Week, I see this one working out quite well for CBS.
Chance of Success: Likely
Timeslot: Thursdays at 830/730c
Lead in: The Big Bang Theory
Competition: Once Upon a Time in Wonderland, The Vampire Diaries, Welcome to the Family, The X Factor
Analysis: The Millers is being blasted for a pretty bad pilot, especially with the fart jokes. The show has a typical CBS feel, which critics do not enjoy all too much. What does matter though: viewers know CBS and their comedies and they tend to enjoy them. Given the typical CBS feel, the lead in of the number one scripted series on broadcast television, and a lot of untested or weak competition, The Millers stands a good chance at succeeding.
Chance of Success: Very Likely
Timeslot: Mondays at 930/830c
Lead in: 2 Broke Girls
Competition: Beauty and the Beast, Dancing with the Stars, Sleepy Hollow, The Voice
Analysis: Similar to The Millers, Mom is getting less than stellar reviews. Along with those bad reviews are something CBS once again cares more about: their audience. The show is from Chuck Lorre, who has given the network The Big Bang Theory, Two and a Half Men, and Mike & Molly. That is a track-record which bodes well for the network. Along with the creator, it has the feel of a typical CBS comedy. 2 Broke Girls isn't as strong as CBS expected it to be this past season and the competition is tough, but Mom should come out of the gates strong.
Chance of Success: Likely
Lead in: How I Met Your Mother
Competition: Bones, Dancing with the Stars, Hart of Dixie, The Voice
Analysis: Sticking with the poorly-reviewed CBS comedy theme: We Are Men, which is expected to be one of the first cancellations of the season. I do not think the show looks as bad as some are making it out to be, but the single-camera format will likely drive those typical CBS viewers away. Unlike The Crazy Ones, We Are Men has not been given as big of a promotional push from the network, entertainment sites, and tabloid series'. The final season of How I Met Your Mother should give the series a strong lead in, but the lead in did nothing for this past-seasons dud, Partners. I do not predict terribly low numbers for We Are Men, but something in the vicinity of Partners is likely.
Chance of Success: Poor
